Goldman Sachs has cut its Tesla price target from $295 to $285, citing weaker-than-expected sales in key global markets. Despite maintaining a Neutral rating, the downgrade reflects ongoing delivery struggles in the U.S., Europe, and China.
Tesla shares are now trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week, as concerns grow over the company’s second-quarter performance.
Slumping Sales Across the Board
Goldman Sachs analysts pointed to sharply declining vehicle registrations and delivery figures as the primary reason for the lowered outlook.
Here’s the breakdown by region:
United States:
- Mid-teens year-over-year drop in quarter-to-date deliveries through May
- Data from Wards and Motor Intelligence supports this downtrend
Europe:
- April registrations fell 50% YoY
- May down mid-20% YoY
- In Germany, Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2%, even as overall EV registrations rose 44.9%
- In Spain, Tesla sales slid 29% in May, per ANFAC data
China:
- CPCA reported 20% year-over-year decline in May sales
- Despite a 5.5% monthly gain over April, the overall trend remains concerning
New Q2 Forecast: 365,000 Deliveries
Goldman Sachs has revised its Q2 2025 Tesla delivery estimate to 365,000 vehicles, down from its previous forecast of 410,000.
That number also falls below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 417,000.
Updated Q2 2025 Delivery Projections:
- Range: 335,000 to 395,000
- Base Case: 365,000
- Previous Estimate: 410,000
Surveys from Morning Consult and HundredX show a dip in U.S. consumer enthusiasm for Tesla, suggesting that brand sentiment may also be contributing to slowing demand.
Financials Remain Strong
Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financial foundation is still solid:
- Trailing 12-month revenue: $95.7 billion
- Market capitalization: $917 billion
This suggests that while growth may be slowing, Tesla’s balance sheet and long-term strategic position remain strong.
Bright Spots: China’s Rural Push & Vertical Integration
Tesla isn’t standing still. The company is participating in a Chinese government initiative to boost rural EV adoption, with both the Model 3 and Model Y playing central roles. This campaign could help offset some urban market weakness.
Additionally, analysts at Piper Sandler are more bullish.
Alexander Potter noted, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”
That level of supply chain control could give Tesla a long-term cost advantage — especially as battery manufacturing becomes even more central to EV performance and margins.
What It Means for Investors
The lowered price target signals short-term concern but doesn’t reflect a loss of faith in Tesla’s long-term potential. The EV giant is still innovating aggressively — from robotaxi development to battery supply resilience — even as quarterly deliveries face global pressure.
For now, it’s a reality check, not a red flag.
What do you think of Goldman Sachs’ downgrade? Is it a sign of deeper problems — or just a short-term hiccup in Tesla’s global playbook?
Share your take in the comments below — and if you’re a Tesla investor, let us know how you’re reading the market.